New-home sales climb in February from a year ago

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 411 thousand. This was down from a revised 431 thousand SAAR in January (revised down from 437 thousand). 

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

 

"Sales of new single-family houses in February 2013 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 411,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 4.6 percent below the revised January rate of 431,000, but is 12.3 percent above the February 2012 estimate of 366,000.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in February to 4.4 months from 4.2 months in January.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

 

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 152,000. This represents a supply of 4.4 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.



The inventory of completed homes for sale is just above the record low. The combined total of completed and under construction is also just above the record low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In February 2013 (red column), 33 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 30 thousand homes were sold in February. This was the eight weakest February since this data has been tracked. The high for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.

This was below expectations of 425,000 sales in February, but still a fairly solid report. 

By: Bill McBride

4 Musts When Hiring a Home Improvement Contractor

If you're searching the Yellow Pages, you haven't done your homework

1.  Know specifically what you want to have done. The more information you have available for the contractor, the better.

2. Try to get personal referrals, rather than relying on the phone book. If you have a friend or a relative who had some work done on their home that they were pleased with, that's a great starting point. You can get some honest feedback about the contractor's skill level, price, scheduling, level of cooperation, and much more. There are a lot of contractors out there to choose from, and, like most businesses, they succeed or fail mostly by their reputation, so a good referral is very helpful.

There are other sources of referrals as well. If you see some work going on down the street, stop and talk to the homeowner. Most people are more than willing to share their experiences -- good and bad -- about the contractor they've hired, and here again you can get some great firsthand information.

Material suppliers are also great sources. Ask the people where you buy your lumber or your plumbing supplies if they know of anyone who's particularly good at the type of project you have in mind. Retailers have a reputation to protect as well -- they want to keep you happy and coming back as a customer -- so they will typically refer only those contractors who they know are honest and will do a quality job.

Other good sources of referrals include real estate agents, insurance agents, property managers, your utility company, and your local building department.

3. When you have a referral or two, call the contractors to set up an appointment. Ask the following four questions:

• Do they do the specific type of work you're looking for? It could be they no longer do kitchens or room additions, or they now do remodeling and have stopped building new homes. Clarify that upfront.

• What is their schedule like? If you have a project that has to be done within the next month and the contractor can't even start until then, there's no point in wasting your time or theirs.

• Can they provide you with referrals? Most companies are more than willing to provide you with names and phone numbers of past clients. If they can't or won't provide you with referrals, don't hire them. Between the time you call the contractor and the time they come out, be sure to follow up on a couple of the referrals and get some feedback from the homeowners. If possible, see if the referral would mind if you came out to their home to view the contractor's work in person.

• What is the contractor's name and license number? Get the contractor's full legal business name, address and business phone number, as well as their contractor's license number. Immediately follow up on this information, and call the contractor's board to verify the status of the license and that all of the proper bonds and insurance policies are in place.

4. Have a written contract that describes all the details of your agreement with the contractor, including materials to be used, a description of what's to be done, beginning and completion dates, price, and a payment schedule.Never pay in full upfront, even if you're offered a discount. Make a reasonable down payment if it's requested, typically no more than 20 percent, then make payments as the job progresses. The payments should be tied to specific completions, such as completion of frame inspection, completion of final inspection, or something else that you can easily verify.

For more information about the proper steps in hiring a contractor, including state-by-state licensing information, you can also download my book, "Hire the Right Contractor for Your Home," from Amazon.com.

BY : Paul Bianchina